Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Which consensus will prevail? We link, you decide!

Has the U.S. and Israel pushed 'free' Lebanon into the Syria-Iran axis.
Or is the Party of God crushed?

Who will adopt one view over the other -- and for what purpose?

Walid Jumblatt, leader of the most powerful clan in Lebanon?s Druze community, said on Tuesday the conflict between Israel and Hizbollah guerrillas had dealt a fatal blow to Lebanese hopes of a strong independent state, free of Iranian and Syrian influence.

Speaking from his family?s palatial 18th century redoubt high in the Shouf mountains above Beirut, Mr Jumblatt said the Shia Hizbollah movement already sensed victory.

He accused the movement of working to an Iranian and Syrian timetable when it kidnapped two Israeli soldiers on July 12, triggering a devastating Israeli retaliation. In the process Hizbollah had ?stolen the hopes? of young Lebanese whose protests last year helped force Syria to withdraw its troops after 22 years in Lebanon.

But he said that like many Lebanese he had to support the Shia movement in its resistance against ?brutal Israeli aggression?. They were ?a well entrenched guerrilla army, not afraid to die, plus they are fighting Vietcong style?, he said. Israel?s widening offensive would only cause more destruction and weaken further the Lebanese state.

?After the 12 July, Lebanon is now unfortunately being entrenched solidly into the Syrian-Iranian axis,? he said. ?The hopes of a stable, prosperous Lebanon where we could attract investments is over for now. It is a fatal blow for confidence.?

Mr Jumblatt has shrewdly navigated the ups and downs of Lebanon?s treacherous politics, gaining influence beyond the weight of his Druze community, a breakaway sect from Shia Islam that makes up around 10 per cent of the population.

As a militia leader during Lebanon?s civil war he accommodated Syria?s expansionary aims. But last year he emerged as one of the Syrian regime?s fiercest opponents in an alliance of groups that came together following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and led a coalition government following elections.

Or it is the view from ThreatsWatch -- Hezbelloh is crushed -- that will prevail?

Israel is providing a lesson on fighting the war on terror.

The mighty Hizballah, rightfully feared as the most lethally armed terrorist organization on the planet, is now on the ropes. Only their lifeline from Syria sustains them in the midst of devastating strikes from the Israeli Air Force. From the hundreds of rocket launchers in southern Lebanon to weapons depots and infrastructure all the way up the Bekaa Valley in Baalbek, Hizballah?s operational headquarters city, the IAF has exacted a heavy toll from Hizballah since the attack in Israel in which Hizballah terrorists killed eight IDF soldiers and abducted the two surviving.

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