Wednesday, July 12, 2006

The coming Republican crack-up: heading for the Rockies

New Hampshire is one state that's become "neo-libertarian" (fiscally conservative and small government oriented and socially liberal). But due to the influx of Massachusetts "exiles" who helped put the state in Kerry's column in 2004, New Hamsphire will be a shade of purple. This doesn't bode well for conservatives and even those handful of Free Staters. Just as likely New Hampshire, I believe, over time turn Blue.

Ryan Sager has a new book coming out. His thesis, as I read it is the following: The interior Western states may be the next battleground for Repubilcans even though they hold most of the Congressional seats there. Why? Because Sager suggests that the exodus of "blue" voters from California will transform not only states like Colorado and Arizona but Idaho and Montana. These interior Western transplants (which mostly went for Bush in 2004) have little in common with the Southern states that have dominated Republican politics since 1994.

This may be an opportunity for Democrats to create a wedge between libertarian and traditional conservatives, a development seized upon by Sager.

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