Monday, September 06, 2004

Bill Safire assesses the President's new fortunes

Mark me down as one of those who believe the press will soon be buying into a new template: that Kerry has nothing to worry about trailing as he does at this point -- he's shown to be a great closer. Polipundit looks beyond the Kerry as Mariano Rivera motif the Democrat-friendly media expects to burnish in the coming weeks. He makes a few good points.

But what would this final stretch look like? Any turnaround would either be a Bush blunder of massive scale or hoping for bad economic news. The latter puts Kerry in a strange position. The most estimable William Safire who after sizing up the Bush Push sees the race this way:

We can be certain that bad economic news, if it comes, will hurt Bush. When the
recovery stuttered this summer and Kerry's political fortunes rose, we had a
brief "Kerry market" - stocks declined sharply at the prospect of dividend and
capital-gains tax increases, recovering along with Bush's recent comeback. If
the figures near election time are not good, a worried market will drop as
Kerry's stock rises, accentuating investor gloom. Public pessimism cheers the
challenger.




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